Avoid Rolled Shipments This Peak Season

Avoid Rolled Shipments This Peak Season

Update:

The United States and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in their escalating trade war, significantly reducing tariffs imposed in recent months. Effective immediately, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have been lowered from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced its tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10%. This temporary agreement aims to ease tensions and provide a window for further negotiations. While the rollback offers short-term relief, tariffs remain elevated compared to pre-dispute levels, and uncertainties persist regarding a long-term resolution. (source)

How importers are navigating tariffs, delays, and disruption in 2025

If you’re holding off on shipping decisions this quarter, you’re not alone. Across the U.S., importers are pausing or deferring cargo—not because they want to, but because they have to.

As of May 1, 2025, new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have reached 145%, with the elimination of the de minimis rule for low-value shipments adding even more pressure. The result: a 35% drop in container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles and a 60% decline in China–U.S. East Coast bookings [WSJ, NY Post].

For companies that ship high-value, time-sensitive goods—from electronics and auto parts to seasonal retail—the question isn’t just when to ship. It’s whether the current freight and tariff conditions allow for any profit margin at all.

Yet while some wait on the sidelines, others are adapting quickly—preserving delivery timelines, protecting market share, and avoiding costly surprises like rolled shipments.

The Tariff Effect: Fewer Shipments, But Not Less Risk

This year’s peak season won’t follow historical patterns. Instead of volume surges, we’re seeing capacity artificially constrained. Why? Because carriers are blanking sailings at a rapid pace—canceling scheduled vessel departures to stabilize rates in a shrinking market.

That’s created a paradox: while demand softens, space is still limited. And when ships do sail, cargo is getting bumped, especially when it’s booked late or comes from low-priority customers.

At the same time, air freight—typically a backup for time-sensitive shipments—is experiencing volatility of its own. Carriers are pulling back block space agreements and shifting capacity to non-U.S. lanes. Spot rates have softened in recent weeks, but not consistently enough to rely on. With the May 2 policy rollout tightening customs enforcement, unexpected delays at clearance points are now part of the equation too [AP News, FreightWaves].

The message is clear: even in a softer season, the risk of disruption remains high—and it’s catching importers off guard.

What Leading Importers Are Doing Differently

Here’s what experienced logistics teams are doing to stay ahead of the volatility:

1. Booking early—and treating space like currency

The traditional “3–4 week” window for ocean bookings no longer applies. Leading importers are securing space 6–8 weeks in advance, especially on eastbound trans-Pacific lanes where blank sailings are most concentrated. Early bookings are not only about space—they’re about leverage when things shift.

2. Using blended modal strategies

Ocean remains more cost-effective, but air isn’t the guaranteed failsafe it once was. Savvy importers are using a combination of transloads via Mexico, rerouting through Southeast Asia, and hybrid air-ocean models to spread risk and manage cost-to-service tradeoffs.

3. Monitoring tariffs, not waiting on them

While there’s speculation that some tariff relief may come later in the year, no formal rollback is expected in the near term. Top-performing importers are evaluating options like partial order releases, alternative origins, and dynamic landed cost modeling to determine what should ship now—and what should wait.

4. Building in buffer—on multiple levels

Time, space, and inventory strategy are being rebalanced. Whether it’s extending warehouse safety stock, pre-positioning goods at nearshore hubs, or running dual bookings, companies that build resilience into their logistics playbook are the ones protecting their customer commitments.

5. Relying on data and direct communication

It’s not enough to react to blank sailings after they happen. The most agile importers have real-time access to sailing schedules, carrier allocations, and customs alerts, giving them a chance to reroute or rebook proactively instead of absorbing downstream delays.

Looking Ahead: Still Time to Act

This year’s peak season won’t bring a flood of cargo—but that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. In fact, the quieter seasons often create false confidence. With fewer sailings, space tightens quickly. And with pricing and customs timelines in flux, those without a plan are often left scrambling.

If you’re shipping anything time-sensitive in the next 60 to 90 days, don’t assume you can wait for the dust to settle. The importers seeing the best outcomes right now are those moving with urgency—but also with strategy.

Need a plan to avoid rolled shipments this peak season?

Our team has helped importers weather volatility across 50 peak seasons. From tariff navigation to carrier allocation to air/ocean strategy, we offer the insight and relationships needed to move confidently—without paying more than you need to.

📦 Let’s build your custom plan today.

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