Key Takeaways
- Peak is tapering. Retailers say the extended 2026 peak season is winding down, and most holiday merchandise is already staged.
- Carriers are cutting space. Lines are expanding blank sailings on transpacific loops as US container imports moderate through Q4.
- Don’t bet on a slide. Fewer sailings can hold rates up, so waiting for cheaper January space is a gamble.
- Book pre-Lunar New Year early. Lock January space and equipment now, before the factory shutdown rush.
Immediate Shipper Alert: Expanding Transpacific Blank Sailings
Carriers are pulling more transpacific sailings as retail import volumes ease, which shrinks the space left for January cargo. Book pre-Lunar New Year shipments now so your containers don’t get rolled.
Holiday stock is in. Retailers have staged most of their holiday merchandise, and the extended 2026 peak season is tapering [1]. If you work with a freight forwarder China to USA, the bookings that matter next are January’s, not December’s.
Volumes ease through Q4. The National Retail Federation projects US container imports will moderate through the fourth quarter [2]. Replenishment shifts toward keeping winter shelves stocked rather than another stocking push.
Carriers blank sailings. Lines are answering softer demand by expanding blank sailings on transpacific loops [1]. Pulling sailings keeps the remaining ships full, and it shrinks the pool of space you’re competing for.
Rates may not slide. With fewer sailings, softer volumes don’t automatically mean cheaper freight. Betting on a sustained rate slide through January leaves you exposed if carriers hold the line [1].
Lunar New Year compresses demand. Chinese factories push output out the door before the holiday shutdown, so export bookings bunch up in the weeks ahead of it. When that rush meets reduced sailings, late bookers face rollovers and tight equipment.
Empties follow the ships. A cancelled sailing also removes the empty containers that vessel would have carried back to Asia. Expect equipment to tighten at origin as blankings stack up, and plan container releases ahead of your cargo-ready dates.
Origin choice matters. If your vendor can load at more than one port, ask now which gateway keeps the most weekly sailings after the cuts. Moving a booking to a better-served port costs less than a rollover.
Check every D&D invoice. Under OSRA-22 and the FMC’s billing rule at 46 CFR Part 541, you don’t have to pay a demurrage or detention invoice that lacks the required information or arrives late, so audit each one before you settle [3].
Carrier Surcharge & Landed Cost Impact Matrix
| Trade Corridor | Carrier Surcharge Type | Impact per FEU | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia to US (transpacific loops) | Capacity cuts via blank sailings | No figure published; supports rate levels | Under way now |
| China origins, pre-Lunar New Year | GRI or peak-style surcharge risk | No figure published; watch carrier filings | Ahead of the holiday shutdown |
| Asia origin equipment | Container availability | No figure published; tighter as blankings stack up | As blank sailings accumulate |
| US inbound demand | Import volume trend | Moderating; not a reliable signal of lower rates | Through Q4 |
3-Step Shipper Mitigation Action Plan
Recommended Next Steps for Logistics Managers:
- Book January space now. Confirm pre-Lunar New Year allocations with your carriers and forwarder instead of waiting for spot rates to drift lower.
- Secure equipment early. Have your vendors and carriers confirm container releases ahead of cargo-ready dates, and line up an alternate load port in case your sailing is blanked.
- Audit D&D invoices on arrival. Check every demurrage and detention bill for the required details and timing, keep your gate records, and dispute anything that falls short.
References
- FreightWaves, “Retailers say extended peak shipping season winding down“
- National Retail Federation, Global Port Tracker
- Federal Maritime Commission, Demurrage and Detention Billing Requirements, Final Rule (46 CFR Part 541)
